Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain are now becoming the leitmotif of the reflections of the international financial community, as if the only concern on which we should dwell was holding short of the public finances of these countries . The what to choose and where to stand at the level of investment has been amply dealt with by me on several occasions and media contexts, however, the question we should ask where the prince at this moment is not whether this is a government bond default risk, but rather what will not. I will try to convey my thoughts in a more understandable way possible.
Crisis sovereign debt crisis in Europe is structural (and economic) due to macroeconomic phenomena that have delivered their full potential by detonating a turbocharged model of economic development with low interest rates and low costs of labor that bears the name of globalization. This comes not from the natural evolution of classical capitalism, but rather is a solution designed by powerful lobby desk supranational interest to resolve the distressing decline in profits and corporate profits in the U.S. and Europe, causes a progressive and irreversible process aging population combined with a decadent birth households.
Large multinationals vedranno infatti costantemente contrarsi sia i fatturati che i livelli di profitto in quanto ormai quasi tutti i mercati occidentali sono maturi, saturi o addirittura in declino (pensate al mercato automobilistico, non sono casuali le recenti esternazioni di Sergio Marchionne). Tra quindici anni le persone anziane, gli over sessanta, rappresenteranno una quota sempre più consistente delle popolazioni occidentali (in Italia saranno stimati quasi al 40%). Una persona anziana purtroppo non rappresenta il clichè del consumatore ideale, infatti contribuisce marginalmente poco al livello dei consumi rispetto ad un trentenne (quest’ultimo infatti si trova appena all’inizio del suo progetto di vita: si deve sposare, deve comprare un’abitazione, have children, buy a car, Divertis in his spare time, go on vacation, clothes and so on).
While it will decrease the level of consumption, on the other hand will increase the weight of the distressing social welfare (shelter, hospital stays, medical care and retirement pensions) by going to weigh more and more each year as a percentage of total wealth produced. Basically we are talking about countries (USA, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain & Company) whose fate is pretty well defined: inexorable aging of the population, increasing public debt, slow and brutal industrialization impoverimento. Non so quanto potranno effettivamente servire i cosidetti programmi di austerity sociale, a meno di drastici e drammatici tagli alla spesa sociale ed alla pubblica amministrazione. Chi ha concepito la globalizzazione ha pensato proprio a questo ovvero come salvaguardare i livelli di profitto aziendali (e magari anche come farli aumentare) a fronte di un mutamento epocale della geografia dei consumi mondiali.
In Asia, con in testa Cina ed India, il 75% della popolazione ha un’età inferiore ai trentanni ed un reddito procapite in costante ascesa: si trattava pertanto di creare le premesse e le modalità per far aumentare il numero di persone che in queste regioni potessero iniziare a consumare a livelli similari a quelli occidentali. Thanks to the WTO has failed to implement a phenomenal transfer of jobs through the "appropriateness" of relocation of production, literally moving plants and factories, which would allow time to be born with a new bourgeois middle class willing to spend on fashions and consumer trends for the new millennium. One need not be economists to realize the above: in 2000, Asia contributed to only 10% of world consumption in 2030 will account for almost 40%. As growth potential, to eastern markets are alongside the markets of Latin America with Brazil in the lead locomotive.
So we are seeing a change era: the economic and geopolitical center of gravity of the world is shifting to the east and also toward the South. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is altogether inconsistent with the scope of problems that emerge in the next five years in the face of objective difficulties in food supply, especially in the East has much arable land unable to meet the growing demand for both cereal (unfortunately) of meat from livestock. Twenty years between the current economic model should be capable of providing housing, automobiles, fuel, food and water at least 600 million new people: therefore started to wonder who can still afford to have a full fridge, benches or full of supermarkets and supplied to satisfy the wicked and unbridled consumerism of the new millennium. Manifest destiny to put it to Stewie Griffin.
Crisis sovereign debt crisis in Europe is structural (and economic) due to macroeconomic phenomena that have delivered their full potential by detonating a turbocharged model of economic development with low interest rates and low costs of labor that bears the name of globalization. This comes not from the natural evolution of classical capitalism, but rather is a solution designed by powerful lobby desk supranational interest to resolve the distressing decline in profits and corporate profits in the U.S. and Europe, causes a progressive and irreversible process aging population combined with a decadent birth households.
Large multinationals vedranno infatti costantemente contrarsi sia i fatturati che i livelli di profitto in quanto ormai quasi tutti i mercati occidentali sono maturi, saturi o addirittura in declino (pensate al mercato automobilistico, non sono casuali le recenti esternazioni di Sergio Marchionne). Tra quindici anni le persone anziane, gli over sessanta, rappresenteranno una quota sempre più consistente delle popolazioni occidentali (in Italia saranno stimati quasi al 40%). Una persona anziana purtroppo non rappresenta il clichè del consumatore ideale, infatti contribuisce marginalmente poco al livello dei consumi rispetto ad un trentenne (quest’ultimo infatti si trova appena all’inizio del suo progetto di vita: si deve sposare, deve comprare un’abitazione, have children, buy a car, Divertis in his spare time, go on vacation, clothes and so on).
While it will decrease the level of consumption, on the other hand will increase the weight of the distressing social welfare (shelter, hospital stays, medical care and retirement pensions) by going to weigh more and more each year as a percentage of total wealth produced. Basically we are talking about countries (USA, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain & Company) whose fate is pretty well defined: inexorable aging of the population, increasing public debt, slow and brutal industrialization impoverimento. Non so quanto potranno effettivamente servire i cosidetti programmi di austerity sociale, a meno di drastici e drammatici tagli alla spesa sociale ed alla pubblica amministrazione. Chi ha concepito la globalizzazione ha pensato proprio a questo ovvero come salvaguardare i livelli di profitto aziendali (e magari anche come farli aumentare) a fronte di un mutamento epocale della geografia dei consumi mondiali.
In Asia, con in testa Cina ed India, il 75% della popolazione ha un’età inferiore ai trentanni ed un reddito procapite in costante ascesa: si trattava pertanto di creare le premesse e le modalità per far aumentare il numero di persone che in queste regioni potessero iniziare a consumare a livelli similari a quelli occidentali. Thanks to the WTO has failed to implement a phenomenal transfer of jobs through the "appropriateness" of relocation of production, literally moving plants and factories, which would allow time to be born with a new bourgeois middle class willing to spend on fashions and consumer trends for the new millennium. One need not be economists to realize the above: in 2000, Asia contributed to only 10% of world consumption in 2030 will account for almost 40%. As growth potential, to eastern markets are alongside the markets of Latin America with Brazil in the lead locomotive.
So we are seeing a change era: the economic and geopolitical center of gravity of the world is shifting to the east and also toward the South. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is altogether inconsistent with the scope of problems that emerge in the next five years in the face of objective difficulties in food supply, especially in the East has much arable land unable to meet the growing demand for both cereal (unfortunately) of meat from livestock. Twenty years between the current economic model should be capable of providing housing, automobiles, fuel, food and water at least 600 million new people: therefore started to wonder who can still afford to have a full fridge, benches or full of supermarkets and supplied to satisfy the wicked and unbridled consumerism of the new millennium. Manifest destiny to put it to Stewie Griffin.
source: Eugenio Benetazzo
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