E’ una tesi che ho già esposto tra le righe del post del 19 novembre, Dieci giorni fa, però, sembrava un’ipotesi quasi accademica. Now that scenario becomes more likely.
Forget the statements of Fini and Berlusconi, Bossi and Bersani. No need to navigate on the outcome of the crisis. The true barometer of the crisis is the spread between Bund and BTP, which is the yield difference between bonds and German Italan. More salt, more storm there.
And look what's happening in the markets. It was a long time that the alarms on the public debt were not as frequent and distressing. And there are many indications that are not easily subside.
So we risk arriving at December 14, day of the trust, with the 'ansiometro "to maximum levels. At that point, the appeals to reason, for now isolated, become a chorus, deafening
"Neither election nor governicchio. The crisis is serious, very serious, even fatal. Help, alarm, we must save the only solution is a caretaker government for national salvation. "
Berlusconi, then, must sell, not relying on a strong majority and not wanting to even go down in history as the gravedigger of our country and, probably, the euro. So we find ourselves with Dragons or mountains or reviving Siniscalco or Tremonti, who keeps saying they do not want to betray, but begged from all, and especially dal centrodestra, potrebbe ricredersi.
Poi il governo tecnico provvisorio, di tre mesi in tre mesi diventerà definitivo. Fino alla fine della Legislatura. Il tempo necessaio per logorare il Cav ed estrometterlo definitivamente.
La mia é solo un’ipotesi, sia chiaro. Ma tra i tanti scenari che vengono ipotizzati in questi giorni, mi sembra il più probabile.
E’ quel che tra l’altro stanno predicando Enrico Letta, Massimo D’Alema, Giuliano Amato, Gianfranco Fini ovvero politici ben ammanigliati in certi ambienti. Ho trovato in agenzia questa dichiarazione proprio di Enrico Letta: «Il Paese sta peggio che nel ’93: Ciampi then called to get us out of the mire. Today is worse: the debt is growing, unemployment too. We need a super Ciampi, who is supported by a wide array of political forces. And then changed the electoral law, we can go to vote. "
more clearly than that ...
or wrong?
Forget the statements of Fini and Berlusconi, Bossi and Bersani. No need to navigate on the outcome of the crisis. The true barometer of the crisis is the spread between Bund and BTP, which is the yield difference between bonds and German Italan. More salt, more storm there.
And look what's happening in the markets. It was a long time that the alarms on the public debt were not as frequent and distressing. And there are many indications that are not easily subside.
So we risk arriving at December 14, day of the trust, with the 'ansiometro "to maximum levels. At that point, the appeals to reason, for now isolated, become a chorus, deafening
"Neither election nor governicchio. The crisis is serious, very serious, even fatal. Help, alarm, we must save the only solution is a caretaker government for national salvation. "
Berlusconi, then, must sell, not relying on a strong majority and not wanting to even go down in history as the gravedigger of our country and, probably, the euro. So we find ourselves with Dragons or mountains or reviving Siniscalco or Tremonti, who keeps saying they do not want to betray, but begged from all, and especially dal centrodestra, potrebbe ricredersi.
Poi il governo tecnico provvisorio, di tre mesi in tre mesi diventerà definitivo. Fino alla fine della Legislatura. Il tempo necessaio per logorare il Cav ed estrometterlo definitivamente.
La mia é solo un’ipotesi, sia chiaro. Ma tra i tanti scenari che vengono ipotizzati in questi giorni, mi sembra il più probabile.
E’ quel che tra l’altro stanno predicando Enrico Letta, Massimo D’Alema, Giuliano Amato, Gianfranco Fini ovvero politici ben ammanigliati in certi ambienti. Ho trovato in agenzia questa dichiarazione proprio di Enrico Letta: «Il Paese sta peggio che nel ’93: Ciampi then called to get us out of the mire. Today is worse: the debt is growing, unemployment too. We need a super Ciampi, who is supported by a wide array of political forces. And then changed the electoral law, we can go to vote. "
more clearly than that ...
or wrong?
Marcello Foa
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